A few days ago, the story broke that mighty Goldman Sachs, who over the last year told its clients to be long oil and oil related securities reversed its recommendation and told those clients to sell and take profits. There are several possible potential stories here.
One is whether GS let it be known to all of its clients at the same time or whether it told its biggest (best) clients first. The sell-off did start before the news was reported by TV.
Another possible story is whether GS is putting forth a legitimate sell recommendation or if it is just trying to generate selling interest because it wants to be a buyer at a lower level which I think, but cannot prove, it has done before.
These are potential stories that might attract the attention of regulatory agencies especially since a senate panel is claiming that GS mislead congress and their clients.
They are interesting stories to be sure but there is another that I would like to discuss.
The story I want to hypothesize is the deeper statement GS may be making. There is a much more significant insinuation here than the seemingly large statement calling for a top in oil here when only a year ago they saw oil going to $200 a barrel. How and why would Goldman suddenly change its target price in oil to here and now, just about half-way to its previous $200 a barrel target and what is the deeper, larger message?
Let’s assume GS is seriously trying to give legitimate advice that they truly believe in. If they truly feel that oil has peaked and an ensuing sell-off (not just a little pullback) is coming, then they are saying that the recovery is going to fail! It is that simple. Think about how things were when oil peaked before. At that time, US demand was definitely higher but so was the US dollar. The falling US Dollar which sends oil prices higher can offset the lower US demand to some extent. But today the incredible growth in China and its future implications should send oil prices much higher. We have all witnessed the meteoric rise in China’s demand for raw materials over the past year with the potential for much more as China enters a phase which I would loosely describe as an “industrial revolution” of sorts.
Knowing China’s continuing growing demand going forward coupled with the assumption that everyone has that the US economy is recovering nicely and thus will create a growing demand for oil, one would expect oil to continue up higher possibly going to that $200 level GS had been seeking.
The only way that wouldn’t happen is if the recovery does not happen in the US, China slows down considerably and Europe sees more debt trouble stifling their recovery. In simpler words, a double-dip global recession.
Let’s all hope this sell recommendation is simply GS trying to draw some sellers so they can go long for the next big up move because if not, we may all be in big trouble!